“A leading global think tank, NKC
African Economics, a unit of the well-renowned Oxford Economics, says 2016
is likely to be one of the most difficult years for President Robert Mugabe,”
reported the Dailynews.
“The think tank says, Zanu PF, which
is torn by its seemingly unstoppable factional wars could soon fracture and
disintegrate.”
Ever since Mugabe rigged the July
2013 elections life has not been a bed of rose petals for him, poor fellow. He
was cock sure he would rig economic recovery just as he had rig the elections
but that has proved to be a bridge too far.
Mugabe did not have the political
will to end mismanagement, corruption and lawlessness as exemplified by the
farm seizures and his 2008 indigenisation law because doing so would destroy the
political patronage system he had established, his political power base. His
plan was to throw lots and lots of cash at the economy confident that some
would trickle down and produce the desire economic recovery. So he produced his $27 billion ZimAsset
recovery plan; all he needed was someone to fund it since he did not have that
kind of money himself!
Sadly for him there were no takers,
not even his “all weather friend”, the Chinese, would bankroll his hare-brain
scheme. By the end of 2013 President Mugabe was sending all his ministers
everywhere, including to the “British imperialists and their evil Western allies”,
begging for money.
By the end of 2014, with the ZimAsset
begging bowl still empty except for post-dated cheques from the Chinese and
Russians, it was fair to say ZimAsset was dead!
When it was clear that Mugabe had rigged
the July 2013 elections the Zimbabwe economy was so shocked and disappointed
the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange lost 35% of its value. The economy has never
recovered but continued to decline ever since. More and more companies closed
throwing workers on the ever growing mountain of unemployed. Unemployment has
soared to a nauseating 90% plus and still there are more company closures and
lay-off in the pipe.
The country’s economic meltdown has
forced millions to live in abject poverty; many are so poor they are dying of
hunger and disease. Poverty is so widespread now it has engulfed the “untouchable”
Zanu PF ruling elite too.
Zanu PF grandees like the late Enos
Nkala (Mugabe’s first Minister of Finance) and Nathan Shamuyarira (Minister of
Information for donkey years and credited by Mugabe himself for creating the
country’s monolithic and undemocratic Public Media) died paupers. Mugabe, with
the George Orwell’s Animal Farm cynicism, had the latter’s Borrowdale, Harare
house painted the afternoon he died to hide the decades of neglect, rot and decay.
The Shamuyariras were so poor it is said his wife could not be with him on his
deathbed because she could not afford the $5 or so bus fare.
It is the reality of grinding
poverty and dying paupers that is fuelling the dog-eat-dog fighting in Zanu PF
today. The national cake has shrunk so much over the years but instead of doing
something to stop the economic rot for the good of us all, these Zanu PF goons
are fighting to the death for the scraps!
2016 has started ominously for Mugabe and his regime;
it is tear-gassing civil servants demanding their unpaid wages. Now with ZimAsset
well and truly died and buried the economic meltdown is going to squeeze the
nation even hard. There are signs that El Nino induce drought is upon us; start
from empty grain silos, a very weak national economy, a broken down road and
rail network, etc. it is clear the nation is in serious trouble.
Mugabe is a tyrant renowned for his thick
as hippo skin and for his ice-cold heartedness enabling him to be totally indifferent
to the suffering, misery and deaths of other human beings even his own people! This
year the thick skin and ice-cold heart will be tested to the full!
If NKC African Economics’ prediction
is right and Zanu PF implode and disintegrate, no thinking Zimbabwean would be
disappointed to see that happen. What the nation is concerned about is that
Zanu PF does not implode whilst it is still in power because, if that was to happen,
the party could drag many innocent Zimbabweans into the abyss with it!
If Zanu PF was to implode whilst the regime is still in power it will create a power vacuum sucking in all manner of characters to compete for power. A transition from a brutal dictatorship to a democracy is a very delicate matter as country like Egypt and Tunisia would testify. Whilst Tunisia has had many teething problems at least they are moving in the right directions. Egypt has had a number of miscarriages, forced abortions and still there is more drama and chaos to come!
ReplyDeleteThe people of Zimbabwe must demand peaceful democratic reforms now and not allow the regime to implode in office, we will not know where to start picking up the pieces!
Our failure to reach a national concensus of something as critical and obvious as the demand to implement all GPA reforms has helped Mugabe stay in power all these last two and half years. If the regime collapses whilst he is still in power then we will be in serious trouble although we will only have ourselves to blame for it!
DeleteYou and me can say "We warned you!" and we will be right but there will be little comfort to be had from saying it. A nation that will not think and read the signs of trouble even when these are written everywhere will blunder from one mess straight into another with sickening regularity. we are one such blundering nation.